Criminal and state governance in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Mexico

Hundreds of million people live in areas that are controlled by criminal organized groups (OCGs), suffer from their violent actions, and receive governance from both state and criminal actors. The recent COVID-19 pandemic required governance such as the enforcement of containment restrictions to combat its spread. Notably, during the pandemic, apart from national governments, OCGs engaged in emergency response activities, e.g. delivered aid to people in need or enforced curfews in their controlled territory. The role of criminal governance, particularly in emergencies, is however still largely unknown. CovidCrimes fills this research gap and studies the role of OCGs in emergency response during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. Combining geographical information on the location of OCGs before COVID-19 with performance measures concerning COVID-19 containment policies (excess mortality and COVID-related death rates), CovidCrimes estimates the causal effect of the presence of OCGs on the emergency response performance in a monthly panel of Mexican municipalities using a fixed effects model in combination with several instrumental variable approaches that account for differences in COVID-19 exposure and endogeneity concerns related to the location of OCGs. By gathering novel digital information on criminal and state governance activities at the local level and analyzing their interrelation and effectiveness, CovidCrimes will shed light on the mechanisms how OCGs influence emergency response. Additionally, CovidCrimes will assess the societal consequences of criminal governance by quantifying to what extent OCGs gained power and local support with their emergency response activities. Understanding whether and how OCGs act in emergencies and influence emergency response and its consequences is crucial for the design of effective policies to manage crises and for the stability of political institutions, a core element of a functioning society that is in any case challenged