Worldly Indeterminacy

How many deaths were prevented by the COVID-19 measures in Switzerland? If all gasoline-powered cars were banned worldwide from 2025, what would be the impact on the global temperature? These questions refer to scenarios that are, at least to some extent, indeterminate. It is rather uncontroversial that the number of COVID-19 related deaths in Switzerland would have been higher if there had been no COVID-19 measures. However, the exact number of deaths that would have occurred cannot be determined. And while it is undisputed that CO2 emissions from cars have an impact on global warming, the exact temperature difference that would result from a total ban on gasoline-powered cars cannot be determined. A standard response here is that these inaccuracies are merely epistemic, and that if one could take the viewpoint of a cognitively unlimited being, one would be able to fully determine the effects of COVID-19 measures and CO2 emissions.However, there is an emerging debate in contemporary metaphysics that there may be worldly indeterminacy. The world itself may be indeterminate, regardless of how much we know. While the general idea of worldly indeterminacy has been discussed for some time, there are two types of worldly indeterminacy that are just beginning to be explored. First, there is indeterminacy about causation and prevention: there may be cases where it is indeterminate whether one event caused or prevented another event. Second, there is indeterminacy about the laws of nature: it may be indeterminate what the laws of nature are and whether certain states of affairs or scenarios are nomologically possible. These two kinds of indeterminacy are closely related to the notion of future indeterminacy, the widespread intuition that the future state of the world is indetermined at the present moment.This project seeks to open up new directions in the debate on worldly indeterminacy. First, it gives reasons why causal, nomic, and future indeterminacy should indeed be regarded as kinds of worldly indeterminacy, and develops theories of causation and lawhood that take this observation into account. Second, it builds an intradisciplinary bridge between these metaphysical theories and theories of normative judgement. How can actions or measures be evaluated normatively when it is indeterminate what exactly they have caused or prevented? More generally, what is the relationship between normative facts and non-normative facts if non-normative facts can be indeterminate? By addressing these questions, the project will shed new light on the ethical evaluation of hypothetical scenarios that are relevant to areas of societal concern, such as scenarios in health ethics or climate ethics.