Aviation in a low-carbon society

In 2024, the project has completed its work on demand and opportunities for emission cuts through two new works: The first study examines public support for measures to reduce CO2 emissions from aviation in Norway and India. The study finds that support for strict measures is generally much higher in India than in Norway. The most important factor predicting support for climate action in aviation is how effective people believe the measures will be. The study shows that people generally have significant misconceptions about the proportion of global CO2 emissions that come from aviation, and that many people greatly overestimate this proportion. However, the study finds that correcting this misconception leads to reduced support for CO2 charges for aviation. The study concludes that it is important to understand people's attitudes towards climate action in aviation in order to implement effective and socially acceptable solutions. The article examines whether the COVID-19 pandemic has led to lasting changes in travel practices for international business travel in knowledge-intensive organizations (KIOs), or whether a decline to pre-pandemic levels can be expected. We use both quantitative and qualitative data from three large international KIOs headquartered in Norway to examine changes in travel practices. The findings show that most employees have reduced their intercontinental air travel following the COVID-19 crisis, and many expect further reductions in the future. We argue that this change is driven by a combination of factors, including increased use of digital meetings, changing attitudes towards travel needs, and a greater focus on sustainability. The study concludes that while there is a risk of some resurgence in business travel, it is unlikely to return completely to pre-pandemic levels. In addition, we have continued to work on international governance, including through an article that looks at how climate policy aimed at reducing emissions in aviation in Europe affects carbon leakage, that is, the extent to which emissions reductions in aviation in Europe can lead to a change in emissions elsewhere through markets. In this study, we use two models, an aviation sector model and a general equilibrium model, to calculate carbon leakage in two different ways. The study finds that carbon leakage is negative and limited when looking only at the aviation sector, mainly due to reduced demand for air travel. However, the general equilibrium model shows that carbon leakage is positive and significant when taking into account the effects in other sectors, as lower demand for fossil fuels in aviation leads to lower prices and thus increased use in other sectors. The study concludes that concerns about carbon leakage in aviation are partly justified, but mainly in terms of the overall effectiveness of climate policy, and not because of the competitiveness of the aviation sector. The study suggests further research into the effects of stricter climate policies in other sectors, as well as better modeling of the market for sustainable aviation fuel.