RAPID: Model-based methods to understand and mitigate the risks posed by human monkeypox

This research will develop models to understand and predict the spread of monkeypox virus (MPXV). In 2022, monkeypox virus (MPXV) surprised health authorities by causing a fast-growing global outbreak, apparently driven by transmission via sexual contact. Research and intervention efforts have focused on limiting the impacts of the outbreak via targeted testing, vaccination, treatment, and public information campaigns. However, there is a parallel need to understand whether MPXV could spread substantially in the broader population through other means. Cases have been confirmed in men, women and children, raising important questions about the potential scope and mechanism of MPXV spread. What is the risk involved in MPXV spread, and by what means? How can the risk of a more expansive MPXV epidemic be reduced? Answers to these questions will support public health planning and decision-making, and help to reduce the risk of wider impacts from the on-going global outbreak of MPXV, while training undergraduates, a graduate student, and a post-doctoral scholar. This research will address three thematic areas: (1) It will develop techniques to analyze MPXV surveillance data and characterize its transmission efficiency when cases arise from both substantial spread in a core population and limited spread in non-core populations. (2) It will build and analyze mathematical models to design strategies for disease control in such core/non-core transmission scenarios, e.g., to compare outcomes from reducing transmission in the core population versus reducing the risk of introduction to non-core groups versus reducing onward spread in non-core communities. (3) It will advance knowledge of orthopoxvirus transmission biology, including risks arising from different modes of transmission, implications of vaccine immunity for transmission risk, and risks arising from new viral strains or species. Across all three themes, the project team will conduct baseline research to advance methods and address knowledge gaps, and apply these tools to analyze data from the global MPXV outbreak in response to on-going developments in the outbreak. This project was funded in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.