Analysis of Covid-19 infection based on Estonian data: Infection prevalence, temporal dynamics of infections, disease course and vaccine efficacy

In the framework of the project, we plan to study the following questions: 1) What is the dynamics of Covid-19 infections in time, how does it depend on the regional and age structure of Estonian population; 2) How does the dynamics of infection spread differ in subgroups with different immunity levels (according to vaccination and past infections); 3) What is the probability of breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and how does it depend on characteristics of individuals and details on vaccination (vaccine used, time of vaccination, no of doses,...); 4) How does the probability of severe disease (hospitalization, intensive care, death) depend on different patient characteristics; 5) How does the population excess mortality in 2020-2022 depend on the number of infections and the population immunity level. In addition, optimal prediction models will be developed for the infection, accounting for vaccination and mitigation measures. The effect of different virus strains on severity of the disease is also studied. In addition, scientific collaboration with ECDC is planned to exchange methodology and data analysis results.