tackling epidemic threats by advancing the science of human interactions and infection

Pathogens with the greatest potential to cause fast-paced, disruptive epidemics and pandemic are those that spread readily between hosts. Human behaviour drives epidemics, and human interactions provide many infectious diseases, such as influenza, measles or the coronavirus behind Covid-19, opportunities to transmit. Many social, economic and cultural factors are thought to determine how people interact outside of homes, in schools, workplaces, shops, transport systems, and leisure activities. Public health responses to epidemics often rely on selectively reducing these interactions and opportunities for transmission, such as contact tracing and quarantine, or, as used during the Covid-19 pandemic, the closure of workplaces, hospitality venues and schools and stay-at-home 'lockdown' directives. Our scientific understanding of human interactions, however, is poor. We do not know how best to monitor interactions during a future pandemic. We do not understand the social and economic pressures that determine how individuals interact and potentially infect their communities (or be infected themselves). We have no ability to predict how individuals and the population will respond to the imposition or removal of a public health intervention, such as restricting the opening of different hospitality or retail venues, or lifting of a lockdown or travel restrictions. We also have a poor understanding of which types of interactions are most important for infection to occur. This lack of understanding was the cause of significant uncertainty in planning and policy during the covid-19 pandemic, in the UK and elsewhere. This project seeks to lay important foundations for future research, aimed at addressing this lack of scientific understanding. We will establish a multi-sectoral and inter-disciplinary network of academic researchers, public health practitioners and government agencies, commercial partners, and the public. The network will identify key data sources and methods with which to conduct research and address the scientific challenges regarding human interactions, as well as review the current extent of knowledge. Importantly, the network will have significant input from public representatives, ensuring public opinion and concerns are considered at every stage of our research. A program of research, building upon the collaborations established by this project and its findings, would tackle an important knowledge gap in the management of future pandemics and epidemics. A deeper, data-driven understanding of human interactions and their role in driving epidemics will improve pandemic preparedness, planning and public health responses to epidemics, for a wide range of infectious diseases threats, including pandemic influenza, coronavirus, measles, and norovirus. Real-time monitoring of infection-relevant interactions will provide policy-makers and epidemic modellers with important information during an epidemic or pandemic. The ability to predict interaction dynamics will improve the efficacy of public health interventions focussed on modifying interactions, enabling better targeted, responsive, and effective interventions to supress transmission. Advancing the science of human interactions will transform our ability to prepare for, predict the course of and mitigate against future epidemics and pandemics, and help to minimise their societal, economic and health impacts.