Arbovirus Prediction and Mitigation in the Indo-Pacific

Project Summary / Abstract Dengue, a potentially life-threatening disease, has increased 30-fold in the last 50 years. Predicting and mitigating arbovirus transmission in the highest risk regions is critical to addressing the increasing risk of arboviruses in the United States. Local transmission of dengue has been steadily increasing in Florida, Texas, and California in recent years. In the next several decades, half the United States may have habitat suitable for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, mosquitos which spread dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever. The RISE Study is a separately funded cluster randomized control trial evaluating the benefits of upgrading local water infrastructure in urban settings. The RISE intervention is a prototype for future infrastructure upgrading. Although permanent infrastructure modifications have been recommended as an arbovirus control strategy, this type of intervention has never before been rigorously tested. RISE provides an important opportunity to evaluate whether this model decreases or inadvertently increases arbovirus transmission. In addition to evaluating a new paradigm for mitigating arbovirus transmission, RISE is an ideal platform to assess gaps in knowledge about risk factors for arbovirus transmission. My hypothesis is that modifiable risk factors drive arbovirus transmission in these communities. To test this hypothesis, I will leverage the RISE platform to study arbovirus risk factors and evaluate the impact of permanent infrastructure modifications on dengue transmission in urban settings. I will also create a mathematical model to simulate dengue transmission under a range of intervention scenarios. I have developed a customized career development plan that aligns with my proposed research. It incorporates both formal and informal training under the mentorship of Drs. LaBeaud and Luby. This training plan draws upon my existing expertise in public health, clinical medicine, and epidemiology; it will enhance my expertise in laboratory diagnostics, geospatial analysis, and mathematical modeling. The planned didactics and technical training included here will provide the foundation necessary to achieve my goal of becoming an academic physician focused on mitigating the spread of arboviruses.