STAR: Role of Wild Galliformes in Transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1

Since 2022, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has devastated U.S. poultry production, resulting in over 166 million bird deaths and billions in economic losses. The virus spreads across the continent through wild bird populations, yet policy and surveillance efforts have focused almost exclusively on waterfowl (ducks and geese) as the source of outbreaks. This research examines whether wild Galliformes-including turkeys, pheasants, partridges, and quails-play an equally or more important role in transmitting H5N1 to commercial and backyard poultry operations. Wild Galliformes occupy terrestrial habitats and frequently overlap with farmland, whereas waterfowl inhabit wetlands and coastal areas, making direct contact with domestic birds less likely. If wild Galliformes are amplifying the virus and bridging it from natural populations to farms, current biosecurity strategies-which focus on waterfowl-may be ineffective at preventing future outbreaks. This project will clarify the role of these overlooked bird species in H5N1 transmission, directly informing national strategies to protect food security, sustain agricultural livelihoods, and prevent future panzootic crises. The findings will provide tangible guidance to farmers, wildlife managers, and public health officials on where to focus disease surveillance and prevention efforts in the future. The project employs an integrated computational framework to test two core hypotheses: (1) wild Galliformes act as amplifying hosts and evolutionary intermediaries with enhanced viral shedding and host-adaptive mutations, and (2) geographic and ecological overlap between wild Galliformes habitat and poultry production creates transmission hotspots. Using artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches, the investigators will synthesize data across three analytical components. First, a meta-analysis of experimental H5N1 infection studies will quantify disease susceptibility and viral dynamics across Galliformes species and viral clades. Second, phylodynamic computational models will analyze 28,820+ virus sequences from the United States to determine spillover directionality and estimate divergence times between Galliformes and waterfowl lineages. Third, species distribution models will integrate computational algorithms to map ecological habitat suitability and identify geographic interfaces where wild Galliformes populations and domestic poultry operations co-occur, which is a form of biotechnology. Spatial regression models will test the independent contribution of Galliformes habitat to poultry outbreak risk, accounting for waterfowl distribution and seasonal migration patterns. A novel bidirectional analytical framework will distinguish wild-to-domestic from domestic-to-wild transmission pathways. By combining quantitative synthesis, phylogenetic inference, and geospatial modeling, this work will advance understanding of zoonotic spillover mechanisms and directly inform evidence-based biosecurity protocols, surveillance priorities, and outbreak prediction strategies at the critical wildlife-livestock-human interface. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.