ACTE - Phase-out scenarios for Corona measures: Transport and economic effects

This research focused on the economic and logistical consequences of the one-and-a-half-meter society for the mobility of people. Various phasing-out scenarios of corona measures were examined that were possible and obvious for the transport sector with social distancing. This included combinations of keeping distance, reorganization of public roads, individual measures such as face masks, and collective protective measures such as transparent separation on public transport and on airplanes. The study focused on aviation, the road network, public transport, cycling and walking. The researchers, among other things, made an overview of phase-out scenarios and policy measures that were implemented and proposed in other countries. Together with Dutch policymakers, promising options were selected for the Dutch context. These options were then assessed by the Dutch population in a Participatory Value Evaluation. The main conclusions of this study were: Measures that led to more cycling and walking (at the expense of the car or public transport) probably scored more positively on mobility behavior, virus spread and economy than measures that led to fewer trips. Transport measures aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19 should not be viewed in isolation, but as part of broader activity patterns of people. In public transport, the bottleneck was much more in foot traffic than in the number of available seats. The way in which scarce public transport capacity was allocated had a major influence on efficiency and prosperity effects, effectiveness, and acceptance. When assessing crowds by public transport passengers, people aged 30 and older appreciated that non-medical face masks were made mandatory. When it came to government measures aimed at virus spread, people preferred policy options to promote working from home. COVID-19 will probably influence our mobility behavior in the long term, even after the virus has disappeared. This project was carried out by TU Delft and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.