Modelling the entwinned dynamics of social and physical distancing

Social and physical distancing are community mitigation policies which governments around the world have introduced to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2. While there is consensus in the scientific community about the overall efficacy of these policies, the effect in different sub-groups is less understood. For example, while a lecturer and their family can isolate in a reasonably sized home, a family with parents working in grocery stores or nursing homes represent a different proposition. Important sociodemographic characteristics that impact people's ability to follow guidelines include household structure, accommodation type, nature of employment, transport infrastructure, and vital service availability in the locality. Agent-based models where a system is modelled as a function of interactions between a collection of autonomous agents, are commonly used to model disease spread. However, simulations based on homogenous populations with random movement does not capture the socio-demographic and physical determinants of disease transmission. In this work, we will build simulations that capture the dimensions of the population which effect ability off sub-groups to effectively isolate. The second phase (post pandemic) involves structured surveys with residents of Ireland from various sections of the population to characterize their physical, social situation, and their corresponding ability to adhere to the regulations. The survey provides fine-grained socio-demographic data as well as data about mobility and social contact networks to estimate the physical and social spheres of influence. These results will be used to further tune the model for better prediction, designing of targeted interventions, and for providing additional support to sections of the population where required. The model together with the quantitative and qualitative analysis will help understand the determinants and feasibility of social and physical distancing for different communities. The simulations will be used for modelling what-if scenarios and developing policies that build social solidarity while maintaining physical distancing.