Primary Care Roster-Level Risk Management in Crisis Situations: vulnerability assessment, service load forecasting, and minimum continuity of care model

Primary care practices face different crisis types: localized workforce crises caused by demographic pressure, pandemic, and possible geopolitical shock. In all cases, there is a lack of evidence-based frameworks for prioritization decisions. This project develops three interrelated scientific outputs: (1) a roster-specific vulnerability scoring model, (2) a service load change forecast across crises, and (3) an evidence-based minimum continuity of care model for chronic disease patients. Outputs will be integrated into a primary care management platform with dual-use value: everyday roster planning under normal conditions, and crisis preparedness when disruption occurs. Estonia's high level of health data digitalization and the availability of COVID-19 data enable model validation that is not possible in most countries.